C'mon, Theo. Give Lowell that fourth year. What could possibly go wrong. If you really need an argument, how's this:
You're willing to go three. The fourth year is a risk. OK. Spin the risk and look at it this way, you took a chance on Gagne. How'd that work for you? You took a... OK. We don't need to go down the laundry list. And yes, I know that a lot of really remarkable chances have worked out for you.
But Lowell is a gold glove World Series MVP player. So sign him. Your risk is on the back end, not the front.
If you don't sign him, he should run for president.